Description:
This Market Assessment Report is the culmination of a comprehensive renewable energy market assessment conducted for the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities.

Objective:

The primary objectives of this assessment were to 1) assess the renewable energy markets, building upon recent market potential studies; 2) update baseline studies and estimates used as performance indicators; 3) assess the costs and barriers to the development of renewable energy technologies; and 4) provide recommendations regarding the future direction of the programs.

The research team identified four key areas of focus for the Board as it conducts program and budget planning for 2008 and the next round of Societal Benefits Charge funding (2009-2012).

1. Market Stability and Predictability
2. Financial Certainty for Project Investors and Access to Favorable Financing
3. Targeted Outreach and Use of Incentives to Trigger Growth in Non-Solar Project Development
4. Program Enhancements: Performance-Related Features and Improved Program Implementation

Description:
This report discusses, and where possible, quantifies the incremental costs and benefits between the proposed 20% RPS and the existing RPS.

Objective:

To assess the costs and benefits of increasing the renewable energy portfolio standard from its current level to 20% by the year 2020 including impacts on the cost of electricity and the environmental and economic development benefits.

1. Under the expected case assumptions, the proposed 20% RPS compared to the existing RPS would raise electricity prices approximately 3.7% in the year 2020 and have no measurable impact on the growth of New Jersey’s economy.
2. If natural gas prices rise to levels assumed in the high energy price scenario, the proposed 20% RPS has a positive impact on the NJ economy because electricity prices would be lower than under the existing RPS scenario.
3. The economic and electricity price impacts of the proposed 20% RPS depend substantially on whether the expected technological improvements occur that reduce the cost of PV and wind.
4. Under the proposed 20% RPS, approximately 11,700 jobs would be added and attenuate economic benefits to the NJ economy.

Prepared for: NJBPU		Prepared By: CEEEP		Date: December 8, 2004
RPS Report (946 KB)

Description:

This report presents a qualitative and preliminary quantitative review of a variety of potential models for supporting solar market development in New Jersey.

Summit Blue Consulting and its partner, the Rocky Mountain Institute, prepared this report to provide OCE with unbiased and timely feedback on the range of options available to transition the New Jersey solar market from one that is heavily dependent on rebates to one that relies more substantially on market-based project finance. The report was intended to provide the information and analysis necessary to refine the scope of options that will undergo more detailed quantitative analysis as part of a separate assignment to model ratepayer impacts of the leading market transition options.

1. Rebates reduce project financial risk substantially by enabling investors to recover a substantial portion of project costs up front. If the State moves away from the use of rebates, project financial risk will increase substantially. The State should take steps to mitigate some of this risk, at least until the market matures, and regulatory risk declines.
2. Six potential solar market transition strategies, as well as the continued rebates/baseline strategy were evaluated using evaluative criteria. Two strategies were recommended for further review. These strategies include a combination of features from the full range of proposals that seem most likely to provide the flexibility to stimulate innovation and to adapt in response to changes in market conditions, while still providing enough stability to appeal to investors and lenders.
3. By pursuing a gradual reduction in the State's current level of financial incentives, and a sustained, orderly transition to a financing structure in which the only form of ratepayer support would be through SREC revenues, New Jersey will be well-positioned to fulfill its goal of achieving its aggressive RPS targets while minimizing ratepayer impacts.

Prepared for: New Jersey Board of Public Utilities Office of Clean Energy		Prepared By: Summit Blue Consulting and Rocky Mountain Institute		Date: March 15, 2007
Market Transition Report (953 KB)

Description:

The State of New Jersey is considering the use of off shore Wind Turbines to provide energy through clean, renewable and locally generated sources.

Given the economic importance of tourism at the New Jersey shore, a research study was conducted to measure the opinions of people who live in shore communities (residents) and those who visit the shore (tourists) concerning the placement of Wind Turbines on the New Jersey coastline.

1. New Jersey Shore audiences – both residents and visitors -- are more in favor of the New Jersey Off Shore Wind Turbine project than opposed to it.
2. Distance from shore is the key variable related to being favorably disposed to the Wind Turbine project.
3. The large majority of visitors to the New Jersey Shore (72%) would not change their future plans for vacations / day trips if Wind Turbines were located off shore.
4. Being familiar with Wind Turbines is associated with a greater acceptance of the proposed New Jersey project.

Prepared for: New Jersey Commerce, Economic Growth & Tourism Commission and Brushfire, Inc.		Prepared By: Lieberman Research Group		Date: September 14, 2006
Wind Turbines (1.1 MB)

Description:

The New Jersey Offshore Wind Energy Feasibility Study presents the results of a study sponsored by the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities to investigate the feasibility of utility-scale wind energy development in the waters off shore of New Jersey. The information provided by this report is intended to inform potential stakeholders about the status of offshore wind energy technology and the suitability of New Jersey's off shore waters for future development. This study is not intended to substitute for an environmental review for any permit application for any particular project.

Objectives:

The goal of the feasibility study is to characterize the siting considerations, including various geophysical, environmental, regulatory, and commercial parameters that offshore wind energy development will have to address if it is seriously pursued in New Jersey.

Prepared for: NJBPU		Prepared By: Atlantic Renewable Energy Corp. and AWS		Date: November 2004
Wind Energy (13.5 MB)

1. Screen and prioritize among the Class I renewable energy technologies.
2. For leading options, assess the market potential and estimate market penetration through 2020.
3. Review progress towards the Clean Energy Program goals (gap analysis).
4. Review the effectiveness of current programs towards meeting Clean Energy Program goals and suggest modifications to programs and new programs.

1. Financial support is necessary to achieve significant PV market penetration, but RECs may be more cost effective per MW than rebates.
2. New Jersey can likely decrease the amount of the rebate and still meet its 2008 objective of 90 MW of PV.
3. The Clean Energy Program can ensure that cost-effective RE options are developed by 2008, while also focusing on the larger, longer-term potential of offshore wind power, central station PV and biomass gasification.
4. Digester gas from wastewater treatment and landfill gas offer the potential for the lowest electricity costs, followed by onshore wind power options.
5. When the additional revenues from RECs are considered, several resources appear economically viable by 2008, even with modest REC prices.
6. By 2020, NJ may have significant RE potential that is economic, depending on the REC price and the viability of offshore wind power.
7. The 90 MW PV goal can be met with adequate funding of existing programs, but other programs may help control costs.
8. The 300 MW Class I goal appears to be a stretch due to near-term resource constraints, but the Clean Energy Program can do several things to help meet the goal.
9. Achieving the goal of 1.5X of Class I RPS load served via green power is an aggressive target but the Clean Energy Program is starting to address it.
10. The ability to enter into long-term contracts for energy and RECs is critical for project financing and development.

Prepared for: NJBPU / CEEEP	Prepared By: Navigant Consulting Inc.	Date: August 2, 2004
Final Report (2.2 MB)